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So considering the abysmal turnout the last time EndMaster held a prompt contest, anyone here wanna place bets on how many people will actually be able to turn something in this time around? If the mods let us gamble with our points, that'd be sweet, but honestly I'm willing to play for bragging rights. The ability to brag to everyone else about how much more right you are than them can never be ignored safely!

Basically, whoever's the closest to the actual number of entrants who entered a valid story wins. If 12 people turn in something, and the closest guess is 13, for example. if there's a tie, the points (or bragging rights) could be split up between the two.

Sorry for the idea, it's just that with a week left I'm getting antsy and excited, and want to liven it up a little more (and add some interest to anyone who may not have entered the contest).

For the record, my bet is 14. 

 

EDIT: it occurs to me this should've been placed in the Parlor Room. Oops.

Shall I? I shall.

Because I'm not nearly as autistic as Ford, I have tracked entrants and completions for contests since 2017. While they do vary quite a bit, likely due to sponsor, prizes, and topics, I can share:

On average, a contest has had 23.87 entries with a max of 50 and a minimum of 7. The average completion is just 12.04 with a max of 29 and a min of 4. Based on these numbers, the average on contest completions is just 50.46%.

However, with End's contests, we have two others to compare to. In both of those contests, there were 50 available prompts and the contests had 50 and 49 claimed entrants. In one, there were 29 completions, for 58.0%. In the other, there were just 19 completions for only 38.8%. That's an average completion rate for End contests of 48.4%.

It is likely that in this case, if the averages maintain, that the completion rate will be between 48.4% and 50.46%. With 50 claimed entrants, I'd put the over/under at 24 or 25. A turnout of just 14 would be quite shocking, as that would be the second-lowest since records have been kept (2017), second only to the Epic contest that only had 4 of 16 people complete.

True, but I'm basing it off the fact that in these prompt contests, there's a decrease of ten completed entries. I didn't want to go as far as to predict under ten entries, considering two people have already submitted their entries early (MHD and myself) but I don't see work ethic improving enough to get over twenty entries, if the forums are anything to go by. I believe with the generous time allotment, there should be WAY more completed entries by now, especially since I procrastinated for over a month and STILL submitted a story early that's so far being ranked remaarkably well for a story just under 15k words.

Do you have any data on how close people were to the deadline before turning in their stories?

Most entries show up on the last day, if not the last hour.

WTF. People really do cut it close, don't they? 

While I don't track exact numbers, having two submitted a week early seems like something that has never, ever happened before. From what I recall, usually the first one trickles in about two days before the deadline. On the last day, a couple more show up. The majority of them seem to be published in about the last 4-5 hours before the actual deadline time, with usually 2-3 that get published within a few minutes of the deadline time (and one or two just after the deadline time).

Well then, maybe this contest will have unexpected results

So with only 16 (17 if EndMaster accepts a late story by a minute) valid entries, I seem to have been closer to the mark. Although we'll have to wait until the results are posted to know for sure, I believe I called it.

It's official! 32 people have been declared SHAMED, so final turnout, assuming they all are valid, will be 18 valid entries!

I was closest to the actual final number by being off by four.

/startbet "EndMasters Prompt Contest" {year: 2024, type: contest, sub: turnout} 500

That is fucking dope

In any case two people are already SHAMED.

Snowfall quitting still amuses me

Talk about flouncing.

Realistically, my submission hinges 89.2% on how late I’m out on Friday night & how messed up I am post anesthesia on Monday. However, I officially hit the procrastination scramble where I’m motivated by the looming deadline as of… Sunday night, and I already had a good chunk of it done (more than what’s visible on here by a good few thousand words) from when my motivation was high at the beginning. :^P

My bet is a nice 24, based purely on vibes.

Welp so far FOUR people have submitted early, which is apparently unprecedented. There MAY be unprecedented turnout as well... 

Why do I open my mouth -.-

Nine hours and 17 minutes left at time of writing, and we've so far seen eleven entries. Will a bunch of people submit their stories at the last possible second, or will there be choking? I've already seen a few people enter the SHAME pit, as well.

 

But as Ogre points out, most entries are submitted within a few hours of the deadline. 7 p.m. EST and onwards will be the time to watch.