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Figured I might as well put this here now that 2023 is revving up. If the last few years have been any indication I imagine we will continue to need it.

In recent days, we spent a lot, like a lot to track and then shoot down a Chinese spy balloon with a $400k missile from a $400 million dollar jet. (Nobody cared about the balloon in South America and I have no idea what China was trying to do with that that they couldn't have just used a satellite for instead. Maybe betaband has some kind of slobbery dick-sucking explanation for this one.)

Last night, God decided to remove Turkey from the map.

The earthquakes are the biggest news obviously and I'm guessing will be the main thing discussed. The aftershocks plus the entirely separate massive earthquake in the hours after the first have been absolutely brutal in a historically unprecedented kind of way. But worth noting also is that in a couple of weeks Russia will have spent a year invading Ukraine, an action that they had expected to take a couple of weeks.

Have I missed anything? If not just give it a month, I'm sure there'll be more.

Oh, and I guess tomorrow Biden will give his State of the Union address. I'll trust you lot to share anything meme-worthy.

China claimed it was a civilian weather balloon. Now it's being said this is the start of a whole new Cold War which is dumb considering we've been in one with China for decades now.

Lol, even Ford could take one look at it and tell it wasn't a weather balloon.

Anyway, they're working on recovering it now. But apparently there's been four others over the last few years and defense systems are not detecting them, that may be what they're really testing.

And to be clear, they are quite large.

Providing new insight on the size of Chinese surveillance spy balloon, VanHerck said their assessment was that the actual balloon was "up to 200 feet tall," while he described the payload "as a jet airliner type of size, maybe a regional jet," and said it probably "weigh in excess of a couple thousand pounds."

https://dnyuz.com/2023/02/08/china-sends-spy-balloons-over-military-sites-worldwide-u-s-officials-say/

Article is legit. (In the sense that it is a direct copy and paste from the breaking news alert I just got from the New York Times.)

Update: And now this:
https://dnyuz.com/2023/02/09/chinese-balloon-had-tools-to-collect-communications-signals-u-s-says/

@Will11 I'm pretty curious how this balloon stuff is being reported in China.

Hey yo, Chinese mole here. Most of the Chinese people I talked to about this think it's pretty funny. They don't believe the government for a second that it's a weather balloon and everyone knows it's a spy balloon, they think it's dumb of the CCP to do this (why not just use satellites) and find the idea of people believing the official explanation funny. I've heard a lot of good jokes about how the Chinse government could explain this one:

- The balloon was bored and wanted to see the world.
- A child had a really big balloon for his birthday party and lost it.
- It was a gift from China that was misinterpreted.
- There was a basket that the American haven't found yet.
- China was being nice and giving the Americans target practice.

The two in Alaska and Canada seem much more likely to have come from Russia anyhow. And now I've just heard China is feeling very lonery and announcing they're gonna shoot something down too.

This is all making Sent's poll very timely. With the number of UFOs getting shot down now that all these countries are suddenly paying more attention, one of them's bound to be an alien right?

Same.

Well in the weather world the historically mild winter in the eastern US may finally come to an end late February into early March due to a likely SSW (Polar vortex split), weakening La Niña and the MJO moving into more favorable phases.

Even with likely March snowstorms on the horizon many places along the eastern seaboard are probably gonna record one of their warmest and snowless winter on record.

Official death toll in Turkey and Syria has passed 12,000, with 30,000 injured.

Keeping in mind it's going to go much much higher, a lot of the rescuers are digging by hand and the weather has slowed things for them considerably. And this isn't even counting the number of people newly homeless and all the interrupted medical services.

Most of the footage and reports are from Turkey of course. Syria meanwhile is just beyond fucked, but I guess they're used to that.

I did just hear that five Egyptian planes managed to get in to the northern region with supplies, good for them.

And now back to Aldreda, on sports.

Superbowl 57 (Eagles vs Chiefs) airs this Sunday at 6:30pm (EST) on FOX

Eagles are currently 1.5 favorites to win 

UPDATE

Chiefs won 38-35 mainly because of a questionable holding call at the end

Over 17,000 from the earthquake now. Beating the record of the big one in 1999. Fun fact, they have not spent the last 24 years building better buildings.. They've been doing the opposite of that.

Satellites are primarily imaging technology. If the Chinese are looking for Signals they need a particular sensor for that. Research COMINT and ELINT if you want to know more.

The thing I'd like to know is how long it really operated before detection, or if this was only its first mission.

Today marks the one year anniversary of special military operations in Ukraine by the glorious Russian Federation. I guess they really are special with how retarded slow they're going. They really made me eat my words, the incompetent bastards. At the same time, this means that my Ukrainian grandparents are unable to get refugee status (apparently not having power half the time and only occasionally fearing bombing is acceptable).

Next Week's Crazy Weather (Along with an update on the Pacific) 

The polar vortex collapsed last week which has spurred on the development of a -NAO (Greenland block) for the first time since December. Greenland blocks don't always mean snow in the east but they do help hold cold air and storms in place which is what we may start to see next week. 

Storm 1 (Monday - Wednesday) 

A storm currently raking California with historic snowfall and rain will move across the country this weekend and drop some new snow in the Midwest early next week. After the storm moves across the great lakes the main low in Canada will decay and transfer its energy to a new secondary low pressure developing on the coast. This miller B storm could drop some of the heaviest snowfall totals the interior NE has seen yet this winter and reduce the large snowfall deficits in the area.   

Storm 2 (Saturday) 

Since there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a second more to the south storm at the end of next week I won't go into any of the details surrounding it (Because they will change). I will say however the changing pattern does support a possible I-95 storm as the GFS and now the EURO have started showing.

Current state of the La Nina 

The La Nina which has dominated the world's weather for the past 3 years is finally dissolving due to a blitz of WWB's (Westerly wind bursts). These wind bursts will help a massive sub surface warm pool finally break the surface and allow the development of the world's first El Nino since 2019. While this coming El Nino won't affect the remainder of winter it will likely lead to a very hot summer across the globe and a quiet hurricane season.

You deserve a raise.

In fact the CYSN network will double whatever it's posing you now, I insist!

Aww thank you!

Quick update on the storms

Storm 1 has shifted a little further south but is still on track to deliver the biggest snowstorm of the season for the SNE

Storm 2 on the other hand has shifted so far north it's now looking like a Canadian snowstorm lol

Update on Storm 2 and outlook for mid March 

Storm 2 (Cold Sector)

After moving across the west today and tomorrow (Where it will deliver heavy snow to the mountains) the storm will begin dropping snow in southern Michigan Friday (Widespread 3-5 inches). The main low will then decay as it moves east through upper New York which will spur on the development of a second coastal low similar to what happened today with storm 1 (5-8 inches mostly for higher elevations in the NE). 

Storm 2 (Warm Sector) 

South in the warm sector the potent jet stream which is fueling this strong storm will also create a multi day severe weather threat across the southeast. Since this will likely be a very impactful severe weather outbreak especially on Thursday and Friday I highly suggest for those living in the path of this storm's warm sector to stay weather aware with their local NWS office. 

  3/1 - 3/2 Severe weather outlook from the NWS 

  3/2 - 3/3 Severe weather outlook from the NWS 

  3/3 - 3/4 Severe weather outlook from the NWS 

Outlook for mid March 

The MJO (Tropical forcing) is expected to move deep into phase 8 (8 supports cold in the east), this along with the ongoing SSW and Greenland block will create a window after March 9th for someone in the east to receive an impactful winter storm. Regardless of if there will be a storm or not in this time frame, most of the lower 48 can expect to see below average temperatures mid March.

The NWS has issued a moderate risk for Thursday and Friday

Tornado probability's have also been raised to 15%
 

But what does this do to the probability of flying cows?

Well excluding tornado probabilitys for a moment these same areas also have a 45% chance of seeing winds higher than 60MPH and a 10% chance of seeing winds higher than 75MPH

So overall not only will people probably see flying cows they'll also see a lot of other stuff in the air tonight

Yeah, we’re supposed to get up to 40 mph in the mountains of Northern Arkansas

Ngl, I think we were just itching to use that gear tbh. Me personally, Im just a little bit disappointed it took us so long to decide to take it down. Old testament God would've shot it out of the sky on the spot with a .45 caliber rifle the second it bounced into his Eden. There'd be a whole new bible verse, written just for it, before it wouldve fell outta the sky.

"When one of vile bouiancy cast itself into Gods realm, it was driven away for which the caliber of the forty five was cast'd"
Balloonithians 41:6

Glory be to him, a'men

The Mexican president has tweeted proof that elves exist.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/world/americas/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-mexico-aluxe.html

We all know that's just you on your way to fuck his wife

We all know End is interested in his mother, not his wife.

It's an image on my screen, I guess it must be real.

Cyclone Freddy will break hurricane John's record for longest lasting tropical cyclone (31 days) this Wednesday, Freddy could also break hurricane Ioke's record for most ACE generated by a single storm (82) if it rapidly intensifies again this week. 

It's official! Cyclone Freddy has just broken 1994 hurricane John's record for longest lived tropical cyclone.

As a weather nerd I have to say that is truly remarkable! 

I'm providing two youtube links. Both contribute to the discussion of Monthly news. The first is an intel focussed discussion of events and details that might otherwise be overlooked, but probably won't be terribly interesting to most people. The second is a more entertaining world news content with a broad-brush and humorous style.

Professionally produced news focusing mostly on the United States
 

Unprofessional but generally well produced world news
 

For the first time in 2 years the NWS has issued a high risk for todays severe weather outbreak.

Numerous strong long tracked tornadoes are expected. 

A mass casualty incident has been declared in Little Rock Arkansas after a tornado struck.

Else where multiple tornadoes are on the ground in several states.

A violent wedge tornado is on the ground in Iowa.

This is just one of many tornadoes in Iowa right now.

Another tornado emergency has been issued In Arkansas. I believe this is the second one of the day but to be honest these warnings are popping up so fast it's hard to keep track.

I just watched a trampoline tumble through a field

The 3rd tornado emergency of the day has been issued in Tennessee.

Tornadoes are terrifying. Thought the Mississippi one was just a freak thing, then they just kept happening. Sentinel had to go hide in a basement midway through our D&D session the other night (he's fine) and I'm not even sure what video clips I've been seeing are from where anymore.

Since Mizal just reminded me this thread exists here's an update on the size of this tornado outbreak.

The March 31st - April 1st 2023 tornado outbreak produced 145 tornadoes, this makes it the 3rd largest tornado outbreak ever recorded.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934

Well I'm not Aldreda, but the forecast looks bad.

Yea this El Niño is expected to be a strong one which will likely lead to a very hot summer across America