Since we’re approaching peak hurricane season and winter is only a couple months away, I figured I would start a thread devoted to all of my nerdy weather reports!
Now those who are a part of the “When I see it I’ll believe it” club will know what thread to ignore! (Plus I won’t keep bumping mizals poor neglected world news thread)
8/19
August Heat Wave
Remember when I kept warning about the heat our El Niño was going to inevitable bring this summer awhile back? Well it’s finally here and it is going to be really hot.
Currently a highly anomalous high pressure system is beginning to build over the central plains. As this ridge strengthens it will go on to produce some of the hottest temperatures recorded this summer. This heat will likely stick around all of next week before a cold front potentially provides some much needed relief next weekend.
It is likely many record highs will fall across the central United States next week.
Hurricane Hilary (What an ironic name)
I’m sure everyone and their mother has heard about how historic this storm is going to be and unfortunately all of those hyped up news articles are very true (First tropical system to affect California since 1939 and the first ever system to prompt tropical storm watches/now warnings).
After strengthening to a mid range Cat 4 yesterday Hilary has weakened to a still impressive 130 MPH hurricane as it begins to race north.
Today Hilary will begin to speed up as the ridge over the central plains pulls it north. While the storm advances north it will also begin to weaken as sea surface temperatures cool and wind shear increases. However, this weakening trend will allow the storm to grow in size as well so by the time it approaches the Baja peninsula Hilary will be a very large hurricane. The expected immense size of this storm is the main reason the NHC has issued tropical storm warnings for Southern California.
By the time Hilary reaches California it will have weakened to a tropical storm but will still be very capable of producing gusty winds and most damaging of all, heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall on this scale is very very rarely seen in Southern California during the summer months which is why the flash flood risk is so high for the area. Anyone living near bodies of water in Southern California should be making preparations to protect property and if possible move to higher ground before the storm arrives.
The Atlantic is Waking Up
For the past 2 almost 3 months a combination of high wind shear and dry air has kept tropical activity in the Atlantic basin relatively quiet. Unfortunately as we approach peak hurricane season, wind shear across the basin is weakening and the dry air which has been so prevalent across the main development region, is beginning to dissipate.
These disappearing negative factors for tropical development are why there are currently 4 AOI’s (Areas of interest) in the Atlantic. 3 of these AOI’s are beginning to spin off of the African coastline, luckily all of these tropical waves should develop and fizzle out safely at sea (Though they will likely still produce a rip current risk along some select coastlines).
The 4th AOI is currently located over the Bahamas and is expected to potentially develop into a tropical system later next week (50% chance). If it does develop this AOI should stay relatively weak due to still present wind shear over the northern gulf but it will likely still produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds for some portions of Texas and Mexico.
I hope that the waffle house will still be open
This is great, Aldreda.
For the ease of future CYS historians my first weather posts can be found in this thread.
8/25
Invest 93L
Invest 93L has formed in the western Caribbean and currently has a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical system per the latest NHC update. The storm is currently expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and pose a threat to Florida.
The environment ahead of 93L will be quite conductive for strengthening (Low wind shear, ample moisture and really hot waters). The one thing that should prevent this system from becoming a monster is its fast speed through the gulf.
By the time 93L approaches the Florida coastline sometime Wednesday it will have likely strengthened to a low-end hurricane (Intensity will depend on how fast it organizes). Right now, it is looking likely landfall will occur somewhere in the big bend area.
Yay! I have a job!
8/27
Tropical Depression 10
TD10 (Formerly 93L) formed near the Yucatan peninsula earlier today. Assuming the systems center doesn’t move onshore it will likely become tropical storm Idalia during DMAX (Diurnal Maximum) tonight.
Future Idalia will meander around a bit today before finally getting pulled north by an approaching shortwave trough. During this initial journey north across the southern gulf, moderate wind shear from a nearby ULL (Upper level low) will restrict thunderstorm growth on the western side of the system which will slow intensification.
However by Tuesday the systems orientation to an approaching trough in the Midwest and the ULL over Texas may lead to the shear helping the storm instead of hurting it by expanding its outflow. This expanded outflow would allow the storm to ‘breath’ better likely leading to a bout of sudden intensification that will continue till landfall.
Given the extremely hot, deep and untouched waters of the eastern gulf this bout of intensification could be rapid as shown by models such as the HWRF and HMON. While I do personally think these hurricane models are overdoing the intensification a bit, the potential for a strong hurricane approaching the Florida coastline Wednesday is certainly there.
HWRF above
HMON above
Tomorrow the NHC has 7 recon flights lined up to investigate TD10 and the environment ahead of it.
Also a state of emergency has already been declared in Florida.
8/28
Tropical Storm Idalia
Tropical storm Idalia formed yesterday and is currently undergoing a phase of intensification that will lead to it becoming a hurricane before entering the gulf.
The storm drifted a bit further SE than expected yesterday which has created some shifts east in its track.
Idalia has also been over performing its intensity guidance which has led to repeated changes in the NHC forecast. While westerly wind shear is still expected to slow intensification tomorrow it is now looking basically certain Idalia will begin a period of rapid intensification Tuesday all the way up until landfall. Given the fact Idalia will benefit from a expanded outflow and the deep warm waters of the loop current it is now looking very very likely this storm will become a major hurricane (Cat 3+) prior to landfall. How strong will it get? Well my best guess right now is a 115 - 125 MPH Cat 3 hurricane but when it comes to rapid intensification a storm in an environment such as this one can become a monster (Michael, Ian for example). Idalia is also unfortunately expected to become a rather large hurricane as it approaches Florida which will only expand its impacts.
Storm surge forecast (These numbers will go up).
Rainfall amounts forecast (These numbers will go up).
Preparations for Idalia need to be completed by at least Tuesday morning.
8/29
As expected westerly wind shear has slowed Idalia’s intensification today but now that shear is beginning to lessen as the system enters the gulf. Despite Idalia strengthening slower than expected the storm will still go through a period of rapid intensification tomorrow up until landfall (NHC expects a 120 MPH Cat 3 landfall).
The emerging question when it comes to this intensity forecast is when will Idalia’s structure become organized enough for rapid intensification. Right now the system’s inner core is open to the west due to shear if that inner core repairs itself by Tuesday morning we’re gonna be talking about a very strong hurricane making landfall further east than expected. On the other hand if the system repairs its core more slowly it won’t peak as strong and it’ll make landfall further west.
Due to the uncertainty that still surrounds Idalia’s future intensity the NHC has not changed the storm surge and rainfall forecast maps much today.
Current storm surge forecast.
Current rainfall forecast.
8/29 Hurricane Franklin I also wanted to take this moment to mention the rather beautiful Cat 4 150 MPH hurricane Franklin who has broken the record for most intense tropical system in this portion of the Atlantic (926 MB). Luckily this storm will get safely slingshotted out to sea by the same trough that’s pulling Idalia north into Florida.
8/30
Hurricane Idalia
Idalia has rapidly intensified into a 110 MPH Cat 2 hurricane yesterday.
Idalia is expected to become a 130 MPH Cat 4 as it continues rapidly intensifying tonight before making landfall 7-9 am.
Not sure what else to say except anyone who hasn’t evacuated needs to take shelter now.
Rainfall forecast.
Storm surge forecast.
Idalia has made landfall as a 125 MPH Cat 3 hurricane.
My home city used to literally never get inclement weather except one bad ice storm in the 90s, but now gets multiple tornadoes a summer.
9/6
Tropical Storm Lee
Yesterday Lee formed in the eastern Atlantic and strengthened to a 50 MPH tropical storm.
Conditions ahead of this system are practically perfect for rapid intensification that will likely create an extremely intense hurricane by this weekend north of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC has issued a rare forecast that calls for a 150 MPH peak which is actually on the lower end of the latest intensity model runs.
The storm will continue a gradual W to NW motion throughout this week which will hopefully keep it north of the major eastern Caribbean islands. After the weekend however, track confidence dramatically falls with solutions ranging from OTS (Out to sea) to Lee’s remnants affecting Canada.
9/7
Hurricane Jova
Wow, yesterday hurricane Jova rapidly intensified into a textbook 160 MPH Cat 5 (The first since 2018’s hurricane Willa). That right there is a 80 knot increase (90 MPH) in just 24 hours!!! This is actually a pretty decent preview to Lees future rapid intensification which is expected to begin soon.
Luckily Jova will stay far away from land.
Lee has already formed a well-defined eye this afternoon.
9/11
Hurricane Lee
After peaking as a 165 MPH Cat 5 Friday Lee rapidly weakened due to some poorly modeled mid level wind shear which kept the storm at Cat 3-2 strength for most of the weekend. Today that wind shear let up a bit which has allowed the storm to complete an EWRC and begin reintensifying. Currently Lee is a 120 MPH Cat 3 and is expected to become a 140 MPH Cat 4 Monday night before weakening again as conditions become more hostile.
The future track of this storm still remains uncertain, however, two solution’s have emerged. One solution pulls this storm dangerously close to the northeast while the other (And in my opinion more likely) solution slingshots Lee into Canada.
I've been so busy watching Lee and also doing college stuff that I completely missed the event. However, I do know the floods in Libya were created by storm Daniel a freak Medicane (Nickname for Mediterranean sea tropical cyclones).
9/16
After 11 days Lee’s journey across the Atlantic is finally coming to an end. Currently the storm boasts 80 MPH winds however, due to its ongoing extratropical transition (Which it will complete in a few hours) these peak winds are well displaced from the center in the NW quadrant.
The storm will make landfall east of Maine in Canada around 8 PM tonight as a very large and still powerful extratropical cyclone. Due to the storms large size impacts such as heavy rain, powerful wind gusts and a respectfully high storm surge will be felt far from the center.
Rainfall Forecast
Storm Surge Forecast
9/20
Weekend Mid-Atlantic Storm
Tomorrow a tropical system will begin to form off of the Carolina coastline. This system will have about a day to strengthen before swiftly making landfall in North Carolina Saturday morning.
The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rainfall in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Most areas affected can expect 3-5 inches with some localized places potentially picking up 6+.
9/22
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16
Yesterday PTC 16 formed off of the Carolina coast and is expected to continue strengthening into subtropical or tropical storm Ophelia later today. The storm is expected to peak at 60 MPH before making landfall very early tomorrow morning in eastern North Carolina.
After landfall the weakening system will crawl north prolonging heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor. Eventually the storm will get caught by an approaching trough which will push its remnants out to sea Monday morning.
Heavy rainfall which is expected to produce a significant flash flood risk for impacted areas remains the biggest impact from this storm. It is worth noting some localized places could receive significantly more rainfall than the NHC is forecasting in the above graphic.
Due to the storms broad size and the fact landfall will occur at high tide a peak storm surge of 5 feet will cause coastal flooding for communities along the Chesapeake bay and Carolina coastline.
9/29
Remnants of Ophelia
A state of emergency has been declared in New York City as severe flooding spurred on by the remnants of Ophelia strikes the area.
10/22
Hurricane Tammy
Several days ago a tropical wave organized and strengthened into 85 MPH hurricane Tammy. Currently Tammy is lashing the leeward islands with heavy rain and strong winds as it slowly moves north. By Sunday afternoon the system will be safely out at sea where it is expected to meander around for several days.
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Reviewed
Typically during an El Niño year the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter due to increased wind shear across the basin however, despite having this dominant feature present we saw:
20 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
Luckily most of these systems were weak and short lived (Excluding Franklin, Idalia and Lee). While the official end of hurricane season isn’t until the 30th of November the basin is basically dead now though we could still see 1-2 more fluke storms in the subtropics.
My Winter Outlook (Coming Soon!)
The chill of fall has well and truly set in across America signaling that winter is well on its way. This year, for the first time since 2018 - 2019, we are entering a El Niño winter. These winters can be very different than the La Niña winters we’ve had to suffer through the last couple of years. Currently I am hoping to have a winter outlook out on this thread sometime during the first full week of November.
10/25
Hurricane Otis
Yesterday hurricane Otis in the eastern Pacific rapidly intensified from a mid-range tropical storm to a 160 MPH Cat 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours! The storms 12 hour 80 MPH increase from 65 to 145 MPH is now the fastest 12 hour rapid intensification ever recorded in the eastern Pacific. This breaks 2015’s hurricane Patricia’s record of 75 MPH in 12 hours. Otis will also become the first ever hurricane to make landfall as a Cat 5 in the eastern Pacific when it comes ashore in southern Mexico later tonight.
The global intensity models performed absolutely horrendously with this storm (Forecasted strength solid lines, actual strength dotted line).
Twitter! This guy posts a lot of neat weather statistics and even has his own website.
Just read an article from the LA times that quoted Mexico's president spewing some bullshit about the country being "Lucky" there were "few" deaths. Like anyone with a brain knows 27 is not the real number especially in a big city that had absolutely no time to evacuate from a hurricane packing 165 MPH winds and a storm surge of 20+ feet. However, I do think the government deserves a little slack for their slow response since they had no warning a storm of this magnitude was gonna hit. Just a sad situation all around for an area that I doubt will ever fully recover from this disaster.
5/6
For the first time since March 2023 the SPC has issued a rare high risk for today's severe weather outbreak which will begin in earnest later this evening. Severe damaging tornadoes are expected
Stupid spanish weather.
Being lazy :(
Latest recon missions in the western gulf are showing a favorable environment for restrengthening (Potentially rapid if the core reorganizes quicker than expected). Folks in southern Texas should be keeping a close eye on this system, they could be in for one hell of an overachiever.
7/5
Tropical Storm Beryl
For the last several days former hurricane Beryl has undergone a historic trek across the Atlantic with numerous records shattered along the way. Now with the final stage of the system set Beryl turns its gaze towards northern Mexico and southern Texas.
Environment Ahead
After making landfall on the Yucatan peninsula earlier this morning as a 110MPH hurricane, Beryl has rapidly weakened to a 70MPH tropical storm (Further weakening likely) due to land interaction. Unfortunately the system will remerage over the western Gulf in about 4~ hours and enter a favorable environment for restrengthening before its final landfall in 3~ days. Initially dry air, light westerly wind shear and the systems broad size will slow intensification tomorrow however by Sunday the wind shear will shift to a more favorable position as the center reforms and begins washing out the dry air likely leading to gradual intensification up until landfall. If this process occurs quicker than expected it is possible Beryl will undergo another period of rapid intensification which could lead to it strengthening back into a powerful major hurricane.
Uncertain Path
Beryl’s future track is heavily dependent on the intensity of the storm, if it ends up stronger than expected an approaching trough will catch the system and pull it further north into southern Texas. On the other hand if the storm strengthens slower the trough will not catch Beryl until later which would lead to landfall in northern Mexico or very southern Texas.
Important Update
Latest microwave pass has revealed the system drifted way further north this afternoon than expected and will now remerge over water in less than 2~ hours, even worse the core has remained relatively intact. Given this new data a southern Texas landfall at Cat 2+ strength is becoming increasingly likely.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches have just been posted for the Texas coastline.
The alarm bells are starting to ring.
I totally thought Mizal lived in Dallas
Yes. That is always a fun experience. And now, since COVID, everyone always makes a run on Toilet Paper too.
I always find it funny when people go crazy before a storm and fill their carts with meat and other perishable items. If my power goes out for more than 2 days, I'm usually barbecuing and grilling everything in my freezer. French toast though is a good idea. Next time I'm stuck with too much dairy I'm going to do that.
Haven't checked the weather in my area in a good while, I checked it today and found out 104 degree all-week weather, looks like it's gonna be an inside week also
8/4
Tropical Storm Debby
Overnight tropical storm Debby has organized and strengthened into a 65MPH storm this afternoon. Due to a favorable environment in the eastern gulf further strengthening potentially borderline rapid will continue up until landfall.
After landfall as a likely mid range Cat 1 the steering currents guiding Debby will collapse slowing its forward speed and prolonging impacts across the region.
While it’s possible Debby may restrengthen a little over the Atlantic if it remerges the biggest threat regardless of a second peak in strength, will remain torrential rainfall likely leading to widespread flash flooding in the southeast.
We're getting some crazy wind and rain up here in Ohio even. You southerners stay safe!!
Yea dropped the ball here.
So basically this storm was interacting with a cutoff low (Unusual for this time of year) and due to this interaction it got shot up from the gulf into the larger systems circulation over Tennessee. Due to the fast speed this interaction produced Helene held onto to its strength much longer than a hurricane typically would after landfall. Right now you can actually see the path of the eyewall just by looking at the power outages map and as for the flooding well a lot of these areas have been dealing with steady to light rainfall for the better portion of last week due to the cut off low. Helene's moisture/added rainfall amounts (Which actually aren't anything unusual for a fast moving tropical system) on top of saturated ground was just the final push to create a truly horrific flooding event one many of those areas haven't seen in a 100 years.
65 dead, 1K+ missing, a modern American city cut off from the world and yet our major news stations could give a shit less.
We've had constant rainfall for the past four days. Leaves, branches and trees are everywhere and the streets were flooded high enough I was worried it would reach the cab of my SUV.
There's an entire tree uprooted a street over. We don't usually see this kind of destruction outside of tornado season, and rarely even this bad. This is right after we had a pretty long drought. It's crazy.
I can't even imagine what it's like farther south.
Radar history of what I described here for those interested.
10/5
TD14
TD14 has formed in the western gulf not liking the stronger more consolidated trends the models are showing right now.
Florida could be looking at another significant hurricane landfall this midweek.
If future Milton hits Tampa directly Floridas insurance industry might just kneel over and die.
Can't even imagine the chaos going on at FEMA right now they stay have their hands full with Helene cleanup (Thousands still don't have power).
10/6
Hurricane Milton
After closing off its eyewall earlier this afternoon Milton has begun to rapidly intensify and is currently a 85 MPH hurricane (Likely stronger by now though).
The environment ahead of Milton is extremely conductive for rapid intensification barring any sudden eyewall replacement cycles the system will likely peak as a mid range Cat 4 or Cat 5 (Yes the ceiling is that high). Fortunately, closer to landfall, wind shear will increase as an approaching trough pulls the storm east this should weaken or at least stop intensification. Regardless of strength Milton will begin to grow in size due to this interaction and will have a sizable wind field at landfall.
The biggest threat from this storm is without a doubt the storm surge since even if it levels off from its peak intensity it will still have those surge levels at landfall. Currently a good chunk of Tampa bay (A region particularly vulnerable to storm surge) is under mandatory evacuation warnings any further shifts north or south could have major implications for this area.
10/7
As expected after completing a funky EWRC Milton has begun to explosively intensify and is now a 125MPH hurricane that is still deepening.
Recon is continuing to find extreme deepening this morning with pressure now in the lower 940's with winds up to 150MPH.
With no EWRC imminent at this point it's not a question of if but when Milton will reach Cat 5 strength.
Crazy this post was only an hour ago talk about some truly historic rapid intensification.
Milton is officially a 160MPH Cat 5.
Take it in folks this is about as perfect as an Atlantic hurricane can get.
Dang it Milton! Leave those florida folks alone.
@MiltonManThing
Here I am
Rock you like a Hurricane
I use tropical tidbits mostly that site has satellite, recon, model and other etc data which is all easily available for use.
Milton is now a 175MPH 911mb Cat 5.
What a wild flight this recon plane had.
2 recon planes are in the sky one went through the eye and recorded a pressure reading of 898.6 this makes Milton the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Wilma (2005).
They actually missed the now teeny tiny eye so it's possible the storm is even deeper than that!
Milton will begin an EWRC in the next several hours if the cycle completes smoothly the storm will have some time to restrengthen before it starts to encounter more hostile conditions Wednesday.
already another hurricane right after the last one ended?
10/8
After weakening earlier due to a EWRC Milton has reintensified. A recon plane is currently heading through the eye to record the true strength.
Update winds are at 165MPH pressure down to 905mb
10/9
After appearing to start an EWRC which led to some weakening earlier tonight, Milton appears to have ended the process and stabilized its pinhole eye. Since the system is now entering the loop current and is still favorably positioned in regard to shear we may see one more bout of rapid intensification.
Milton will begin to weaken tomorrow morning as wind shear increases but it still remains on track to deliver a devastating landfall to western Florida. However, it is looking increasingly possible Tampa may dodge a bullet here due to a last minute south trend.
Unfortunately while a landfall south of Tampa would bring down surge totals for the northern bay other areas will be put right in the bullseye especially port Charlotte a city that will likely never be the same after this storm.
Outside of the surge threat extreme wind damage and heavy rainfall will be mostly concentrated north of the storms center due to the effects of shear and land interaction. It is also worth noting Milton will be going through the initial stages of extratropical transition which will broaden the storms size even more.
Other weather posts for this day (10/9) can be found in this thread.
11/7
Hurricane Rafael
After hitting Cuba as a low end Cat 3 earlier this week Rafael has entered the gulf and is currently putting on an impressive late season show. While the storm is expected to fizzle out as it moves west and is currently no major threat to land it is still extremely rare to see a hurricane this strong in gulf so late in the season.
11/13
All Eyes Turn to the Tropics Once Again
Yep you read that right another hurricane is forming in the Caribbean and this one could break some serious late season records.
Currently the storm, invest 99L, has just entered the Caribbean and is expected to begin rapidly intensifying this weekend. The environment surrounding this storm is flipping bonkers essentially jet fuel for a hurricane. If this system does become a Category 5 which is very much in the realm of possibility it would break the all time record for strongest November hurricane ever recorded.
Future Track
Due to a ridge overhead the system our future hurricane Sara will meander for a bit off the coast of Honduras unfortunately this ridge will begin moving east early next week opening a path north. After this the general track which is northwest then a swing northeast as a trough pulls the storm ahead of it is basically set in stone however the little details of this track have not been figured out yet.
A stronger storm will likely nudge the track east while a weaker storm would end up west over Central America regardless of what happens once it enters the gulf the system will turn east towards Florida.
The environment in the gulf will likely be unfavorable for strengthening due to a giant cutoff low being ushered in by a snowstorm in the Midwest however a ridiculously late season Florida landfall is looking increasingly likely. Strength at landfall is very uncertain but the more land interaction occurs with Central America the weaker future Sara will likely be.
The Crazy Stuff
Now here’s where things get really crazy that snowstorm I mentioned earlier is bringing in the coldest air the east has seen yet this “Winter” while this won’t lead to snow if the hurricane phases with the Midwest storm it could bring something significant to the New England region. Of course on the other hand the hurricane may not phase which would lead to it just flying harmlessly out to sea a much better scenario obviously.
Regardless of what happens this extremely rare mashup of tropical weather and winter will have every single weather nerd in the country glued to the models this weekend.
I got told it's the democrats manipulating the weather to affect voter opinion. But I think it's more likely they're just claiming asylum myself.
11/15
Tropical Storm Sara
Some good news to share! And some bad…
Sara has organized into a weak 45MPH tropical storm luckily though the ridge to the north has trended stronger exponentially on the models and is now expected to keep this storm suppressed to the south. Due to this Florida will likely not be hit by another tropical storm this year though they may still receive a decent squall line due to an approaching front merging with the remnants of Sara.
Bad News
Unfortunately the storms slow movement and close proximity to Honduras is expected to bring life threatening flooding rainfall to the area.
It won't really restrengthen instead it's merging with an approaching front which will probably create an impressive squall line that'll cross through the state mid week.
As for New England it doesn't look like the system will merge with the Midwest snowstorm though it does look likely the region will experience its first wide spread lake effect snow event of the winter.
11/16
Ohio Valley Snowstorm
Oh man as a weather nerd the snowstorm next week is looking like one of the most beautiful storm evolution's I've seen in a long while. Parts of the Ohio valley may pick up over a foot of snow and the western slopes of the Appalachian mountains could get even more (24+?) from the initial storm and lake effect bands that follow.
If it wasn't mid November we would be talking about a blizzard of biblical proportions right now.
