8/19
August Heat Wave
Remember when I kept warning about the heat our El Niño was going to inevitable bring this summer awhile back? Well it’s finally here and it is going to be really hot.

Currently a highly anomalous high pressure system is beginning to build over the central plains. As this ridge strengthens it will go on to produce some of the hottest temperatures recorded this summer. This heat will likely stick around all of next week before a cold front potentially provides some much needed relief next weekend.

It is likely many record highs will fall across the central United States next week.
Hurricane Hilary (What an ironic name)
I’m sure everyone and their mother has heard about how historic this storm is going to be and unfortunately all of those hyped up news articles are very true (First tropical system to affect California since 1939 and the first ever system to prompt tropical storm watches/now warnings).

After strengthening to a mid range Cat 4 yesterday Hilary has weakened to a still impressive 130 MPH hurricane as it begins to race north.

Today Hilary will begin to speed up as the ridge over the central plains pulls it north. While the storm advances north it will also begin to weaken as sea surface temperatures cool and wind shear increases. However, this weakening trend will allow the storm to grow in size as well so by the time it approaches the Baja peninsula Hilary will be a very large hurricane. The expected immense size of this storm is the main reason the NHC has issued tropical storm warnings for Southern California.

By the time Hilary reaches California it will have weakened to a tropical storm but will still be very capable of producing gusty winds and most damaging of all, heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall on this scale is very very rarely seen in Southern California during the summer months which is why the flash flood risk is so high for the area. Anyone living near bodies of water in Southern California should be making preparations to protect property and if possible move to higher ground before the storm arrives.
The Atlantic is Waking Up
For the past 2 almost 3 months a combination of high wind shear and dry air has kept tropical activity in the Atlantic basin relatively quiet. Unfortunately as we approach peak hurricane season, wind shear across the basin is weakening and the dry air which has been so prevalent across the main development region, is beginning to dissipate.

These disappearing negative factors for tropical development are why there are currently 4 AOI’s (Areas of interest) in the Atlantic. 3 of these AOI’s are beginning to spin off of the African coastline, luckily all of these tropical waves should develop and fizzle out safely at sea (Though they will likely still produce a rip current risk along some select coastlines).

The 4th AOI is currently located over the Bahamas and is expected to potentially develop into a tropical system later next week (50% chance). If it does develop this AOI should stay relatively weak due to still present wind shear over the northern gulf but it will likely still produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds for some portions of Texas and Mexico.