Somehow we went from me mentioning that armed protestors MAY cause a deterrent (from fear of a blood bath and political nightmare) to—in your first reply to me—"airstrikes on civilian houses and places of business." That's not even a subtle strawman, it's an entire giant Japanese mecha robot made of dry, gas-drenched matches.
But seriously: I’m talking about first-order response to a single armed standoff or protest, or something on that scale, not an end-stage civil war scenario. The disconnect seems pretty solvable: I am not talking about such an extreme situation where we have open war in the streets. If you are, then we're not really having a debate, we're just talking about vaguely related things.
"Your assertion that the military would not take violent action against insurgency in the country is just laughable."
Interestingly enough, I didn't say they would "not take violent action." Re: laughable: You started your argument by saying:
"Civil war would involve the following: airstrikes on civilian houses and places of business where maybe an insurgent walked by once; women and girls being raped by occupying soldiers who then cover up the crimes of their comrades; guilty and innocent people vanishing without trial into black hole prisons that make ICE detention facilities look like pleasant vacations to be tortured, sometimes to death; intentional massacre of civilians. These types of things have happened, to greater and lesser extents, in Ireland, in Spain, in Lebanon, in Mandatory and modern Palestine, in Syria, in Myanmar, the list goes on"
and supported it with four people killed (by National Guardsmen) at Kent State (out of hundreds and possibly up to three thousand students present; only 28 of more than 70 fired) and ELEVEN in the MOVE incident (by police—eventually leading to the resignation of the commissioner and eventually a major payout to home owners in 2005). I do appreciate how you've so nicely illustrated the scale issue I am referring to, however.
It's a waste of time debating if we're not debating the same thing. I never used the word "insurgency." What I am referring to is closer to the Bundy/BLM incident (discussed below). Nor did I say military would take NO action. I said I'm skeptical they would send in jets, etc.
The Bundy/Bureau of Land Management standoff fits the situation I am referring to far better that angry students, and better than a few rebels hiding in a house. An actual armed standoff between many civilians and the US government, where guns were brazenly brandished at federal agents.
Per the DOJ, a total of more than 200 people, about 40 militia members in a drainage channel waving their guns at cops, more than 20 armed up on the overpass, took up position against law enforcement. Slowed traffic to a trickle with armed men, and made statements like "We're about ready to take the country over with force!" You know what didn't happen? Someone getting shot. In Syria this armed standoff would have ended in hundreds of deaths. Instead, federal officers backed down because they didn't want a blood bath.
Does the US state commit atrocities against Americans from time to time? Sure, these two things you mentioned, four poeple dying at Kent State and eleven with the MOVE situation, certainly prove this. But the problem here is that they could have escalated to a horrific, bloody shootout in the Bundy standoff, and instead chose to just leave—because not leaving meant dead officers, dead suspects, major political heat, etc. At Kent State, they could have killed God only knows how many more over rocks being thrown at them. But instead there four deaths, and most of the National Guardsmen present did not even fire. We didn't see the result you seem to suggest would happen. We saw controlled violence, or no violence at all.
"Your assertion that the military would not take violent action against insurgency in the country is just laughable. Especially because armed insurgency would necessarily mean that your heroic group of civic-minded armed liberals would, necessarily, be shooting at cops and soldiers."
My assertion is that it would never even get that far. Civilians would fire back at cops, and IF there was an order TO THE MILITARY to massacre people as you argued in the first response, there's a high chance (based on the demographics of the military) people would disobey those orders. You would then have a standoff, negotiations, and then it would end. Like with the Bundy standoff I mentioned above.
So my claim isn't "the state would never kill civilians." It's your "civil war/airstrikes on businesses" is not a realistic response by the U.S. government to armed protestors firing. The more realistic trajectory is this: the people who are shot at shoot back, some number die quickly, specialized units mass, leaders scramble to contain optics and legality, and you either get a negotiated standdown or a targeted raid, not indiscriminate bombing of commercial blocks.
"Also, I hate to break it to you, you don't have a free media environment. People get their news from large corporations and monied interests that turn them into cattle. The world is now full of people who have replaced reality with a hallucinatory and frightening series of images absorbed from short-form video content and cable news. ICE just brazenly executed a guy in the street, and the Fox news contingent are fervently defending them. Do you think that's a conclusion people would arrive at on their own?"
When your press is free, you get plenty of spin and lies. There is no place where there isn't spin—the difference is who is doing it and why. But the point I was making is this isn't a situation where the state can monopolize the narrative. There are too many competing media sources with audiences with diametrically opposed political views—catered to by those competing media sources. Few people in America would be unaware for long of the military firing missiles into Starbucks and Burger King.
Regarding "post-truth media landscape," you're assuming people just become more obedient in this landscape when they're just as likely to become more skeptical. Even for MAGAs, as seen with the disillusionment with the Epstein thing. Many of the most mindless of all the sheep turned on their false god over that. So it cuts both ways. You will have sources posting lies, and instantly you will have sources countering them, sometimes with the truth, sometimes with competing lies.